Illustration by TOMB

No one, not even the Wildrosers, expected the anti-stelmach vote to be so strong

Who would have guessed that an experienced, influential Conservative politician like Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart would end up a poor third in this week’s byelection in Calgary-Glenmore? But she did, and provincial politics may never be the same — at least not the same as it has been during the last 38 years of Tory rule.

It was clear from the start that the Wildrose Alliance Party and its candidate, Paul Hinman, were the wild card of the campaign. The Liberals were thrilled to see them enter the race because they believed the Wildrose would split the right-wing vote, allowing their candidate, Avalon Roberts, to slide up the middle. Even the Wildrose worried that they were merely clearing the way for a Liberal to take the seat, but they forged ahead anyway. The New Democrats put up a candidate but he didn’t really campaign. Why would he? Comfortable, suburban Glenmore is not exactly prime NDP territory.

Hinman’s campaign slogan, which he repeated every chance he got, was direct and clear: Send Ed a message. And what was that message exactly? Premier Ed Stelmach has messed up the Alberta Advantage because he is not a true Conservative; he’s a phony Conservative. “We need TCs, not PCs” became Hinman’s secondary watchcry.

He’s a personable, easygoing guy with deep rural roots and he’s not afraid to laugh at himself. But Hinman’s also an experienced politician: he held the Alliance Party’s lone seat in the legislature before being ousted in the last provincial election.

Hinman won because he tapped into a deep-seated disgust and contempt for the secretive, bullying, and incompetent ways of the Stelmach government. As the votes were being posted at the Wildrose headquarters at The Carriage House on Monday night, the loudest cheers rang out every time Colley-Urquhart’s third-place numbers were reported. It was clear Wildrosers would rather have seen the Liberal candidate win than Colley-Urquhart. They wanted to trounce the Conservative candidate any way they could.

Wildrose candidates who had run in the last provincial election knowing they would likely finish dead last were ecstatic and making plans for the next election. “I ran in Calgary-West against [minister of health] Ron Liepert,” said Bob Babcock, who owns an oil and gas well servicing company. “Looks like I should take him on again. After Stelmach, he’s the second most unpopular guy in this government.”

The Wildrose win in Glenmore was so shocking that some people are already talking about the Wildrose taking over government in the next election. That’s still a bit of a stretch. They will elect a new leader in a few weeks — there are three candidates — but none of them has a seat in the legislature, and between them they have very little political experience. The Stelmach Conservatives hold 71 of 83 seats in the legislature and an election is at least three years away.

There’s no question that conservatives in this province are divided and volatile. And it’s also true that most Albertans hew to the right and have a history of simply throwing out parties that have ruled forever in one fell swoop. But the Wildrose surge also creates more room for other opposition parties because there is no doubt it will split the right-wing vote.

True, the Wildrose managed to win in Calgary-Glenmore even though it split the conservative vote. But not every constituency in the province is as solidly Tory as Glenmore. Ron Stevens, the former Tory MLA, won with 51 per cent of the vote in the last election. In more than a dozen constituencies, mostly in Calgary and Edmonton, the combined Liberal-NDP vote is equal to or greater than the Tory vote. What is going to happen in those constituencies if the Wildrose splits the right-wing vote?

I’m not suggesting that either the Liberals or the NDP are going to take over government in the next election because of a right-wing split. That’s a bit of stretch too. Both parties are struggling and neither leader seems to have captured the public’s imagination. But let’s not forget that Liberal Avalon Roberts held her vote from previous elections in Glenmore and was only about 300 votes away from winning. That’s close for a Conservative stronghold like Glenmore.

Politics can be an unpredictable game, even in Alberta. But if the Wildrose doesn’t implode and evolves into a viable alternative for a significant number of Albertans, the political landscape will be ripped wide open. Many people who had given up on Alberta politics could get active again and rally behind either a Liberal or NDPer, rather than split the left-wing vote. We could even end up with a minority government. And that would certainly be a good thing for this hidebound province. We’ve been a one-party state for far too long.