SEE Magazine
Copyright © 1998. All Rights Reserved.
OPINION
BY SIMON KISSIf it weren't already clear enough, recent political events should be opening people's eyes to the fact that comparing Liberals and Conservatives is like comparing six of one and a half-dozen of another.
First, federal Tory leader Jean Charest jumps ship to Québec provincial politics to take over the Liberal Party there. And then Alberta Liberals, in a mad rush to dethrone King Ralph, elect former Tory cabinet minister Nancy MacBeth to be their leader. Apparently it's much easier to do that than it is to offer any kind of alternative vision to Tory rule. The Liberals must be hoping voters will decide, by fluke, to elect the Liberals' conservative candidate as opposed to the Conservatives' conservative candidate.
The real losers in this new political landscape, however, will most likely be the New Democrats. One might think that hundreds of left-leaning Liberals, mortified by the prospect of being led by a former Tory, would now flock to the New Democrats. One might also think voters would finally come to realize that the Liberals and Tories are indeed two factions of the Business Party and vote for the only alternative Left.
I wish that were the case.
In reality, however, the next provincial election will likely be played out in much the same way as the 1993 election. Finally seeing an apparent legitimate opposition to the Tories, the voters will flock en masse to that opposition in a desperate attempt to kick the Conservatives out of power - if only just for a change of political scenery. Many of those voters will be New Democrats who defect, at the ballot box, just to see the Conservatives out of power at any cost.
The NDs will be stuck pleading for voters to ensure that there are New Democrats in the Alberta Legislature to serve as "the conscience of the province" instead of boldly and strongly pushing for progressive reform. If the party's lucky, it just might get its two MLAs returned to office. Otherwise the electoral freight train of Alberta politics is going to run them over.
The frightening thing in this scenario is that Ralph will not lose. He can't lose because Ralph is Ralph and Alberta is Alberta. Were any other person in the premier's chair, the Liberals would have a shot at toppling the Tories. But Ralph is too popular and too politically adept to lose.
Ralph showed his skill brilliantly in the aftermath of the Delwin Vriend case. He knew that if he dared to invoke the notwithstanding clause there would be trouble. He knew that the public outcry over the use of the notwithstanding clause, combined with a strong challenger like Nancy MacBeth, would result in a huge loss at the polls.
In the next three years, Klein is going to keep his Christian fundamentalist, social conservative MLAs like Stockwell Day and Lorne Taylor strongly in line. And he's going to succeed. That will allow him to portray himself as sufficiently moderate to borderline Liberal-Conservative voters.
It's going to be MacBeth versus Klein and Klein will win and the New Democrats could lose big.
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